CypherCon 2024

Raising the Stakes in Cyber Risk Management: A Gambler’s Guide to Monte Carlo Simulations and Calibrating Human Decision-Making

Kyle Hinterberg


Navigating risk management can be like a blind gamble when relying solely on qualitative tools like matrices and heatmaps. These methods often misrepresent the true nature of cyber threats. This talk first uncovers the pitfalls of such qualitative approaches, emphasizing the importance of honing human judgment for better risk decisions. We then transition to the merits of quantitative risk management, showcasing the Monte Carlo simulation’s power in deriving actionable insights from complex data. Equip your enterprise with refined human intuition and precision-driven tools, ensuring a strategic edge in the cyber gamble.

Kyle Hinterberg

Gambling Time!

Kyle is passionate about cybersecurity and PCI DSS compliance. Starting as a systems administrator, he gained expertise in server administration, networking, and vulnerability management, leading to over a decade as a blue team expert. Kyle excels in balancing technical and political aspects of compliance, providing strategic client solutions. He is committed to continuous learning and professional development, aiming to address current compliance challenges and influence future cybersecurity practices. Kyle’s goal is to inspire innovation and excellence in cybersecurity through leadership and community engagement.